The Iran war has entered its third month. And China is learning from this war. The country is getting an opportunity to observe how the US military capabilities work in the face of war.
CNN spoke to various experts from China, Taiwan and other places. They warned China of its lack of understanding of its own power, lack of experience, and clinging to a very narrow view of the Iran war and its consequences.
Fu Qianshao, a former colonel in China’s air force, said his main realization from the fighting so far is that the People’s Liberation Army cannot forget its defense system. He noted how Iran has found ways to circumvent US anti-missile systems such as Patriot or Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD).
Fu told CNN, ‘We need to make significant efforts to identify the weaknesses of our defense system to ensure that we remain invincible in future wars.’
The PLA has rapidly increased its offensive combat capability in recent years. They have added missiles that contain hypersonic glide vehicles and can evade interceptors and missile launch platforms.
According to the British think tank RUSI, the PLA Air Force is adding fifth-generation stealth fighters at high speed and will deploy about 1,000 J-20 jets to carry out long-range precision strikes, much like the equivalent of the US F-35.
But their defense system is a completely different matter. Analysts say Iran was able to penetrate US air defenses in the Persian Gulf using relatively primitive technology, including low-cost Shahed drones and more low-cost ballistic missiles.
Meanwhile, the United States has carried out airstrikes against Iran with much more sophisticated weapons such as the F-35 and B-2. It also used cheap and less advanced technology guided weapons dropped from B-1, B-52 and F-15. They destroyed everything from missile launchers to boats and bridges.
This is a mix that Beijing needs to plan for, Fu said.
He said, ‘we need to review in more depth to effectively protect our important places, airfields and ports from attacks and attacks.’
When it comes to a possible UK-China conflict, Taiwan is often seen as the focus of a possible conflict.
China’s ruling Communist Party has pledged to annex self-governing Taiwan, although it has never controlled Taiwan. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has not ruled out the possibility of using military force for this.
Analysts in Taiwan admit that China has built a military that is at par with the high-tech precision-armed United States and low-cost drone capabilities Iran—.
‘Long-range rockets and swarms of drones must play an important role in China’s joint military campaign against Taiwan, Chie Chung, an associate researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told CNN.’
But will that important role be enough to win the war across the Taiwan Strait?
According to analysts, the large number of drones that China is the world’s leading drone manufacturer and its manufacturers can produce is surprising.
Some have warned that Taiwan is not ready to deal with it.
According to a recent report by a government surveillance agency, Taiwan’s military’s current drone defense system ‘is ineffective’. This poses a major security risk to critical infrastructure and military bases.
But Taiwan is not sitting idly by and is taking steps to improve these preventive measures.
Jin Su, managing director of ‘Thunder Tiger’, Taiwan’s main drone manufacturer, called for more investment in Taiwan’s drone capabilities.
If there is a conflict over Taiwan, the island nation or the United States can use drones to target Chinese ships or aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait for attack and occupation.
The enemy is also learning
That’s the point for all militaries learning from the Iran war: your enemy is learning too. They can apply that education in a way you never imagined.
More than two months after the start of the Iran war, many analysts are still surprised to think that Washington’s wartime leaders have made no plans for an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Others wonder how the Iranian government continues to operate despite suffering such a massive military blow, but they see clear lessons for Beijing.
Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Independent organization Foundation for Defense of Democracy, told CNN, ‘strategic victory does not mean political results.’
He said, ‘This is a lesson for China: success on the battlefield will automatically bring you the desired final result, it may not be.’
Then there’s one thing the Chinese military doesn’t have at all: combat experience. The PLA has not faced direct fire since the war with Vietnam in February 1979. Since then, US forces have carried out two massive operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and fought in places such as Kosovo and Panama, which are just a few examples.
Regarding the Iran conflict, Chinese military analyst Song Zhongping said, ‘This is what real war looks like.’
If China were to engage in a conflict with the United States in the coming decade, Washington would have a large number of activists who participated in the current Persian Gulf conflict or planning the operation. They lost comrades, lost wealth, won huge victories and waged perfect battles at high levels. They adapted themselves to the situation.
Analysts say it remains to be seen how quickly the PLA will adapt to the similarly changing battlefield.
Ra